Service Plays Tuesday 3/15/11

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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Thank you, wilheim




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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pony picks: Tuesday's best horse racing bets

The back-to-back winners that began my card at the Parx on Monday gave me three straight for this site. I was hoping to keep the run going at Turf Paradise later in the day as I went through Tuesday's card.

As you know, Tuesday's a slow day for the major tracks so it's back to slumming it with the cheap claimers.

Here are today's plays:

Parx (6th race)
Desirable Desiree

Lacked a closing kick at a mile last race and drops back to a favorable 6 1/2 furlongs. There are a couple well-meant horses in the field which should also keep the odds favorable. Lots to like with this one.

Also at Parx:
3rd race: Chief Operator: has ran well for new connections.
5th race: Women at War: long layoff does give cause for concern, tread with caution.

Mountaineer (10th race)
Eolos

Pereira sticks with this mount in a wide open field that should help the odds out some. Eolos was claimed for $8K two starts ago and failed at short odds last time out. Another chance in the same conditions should mean a trip to the winner's circle.

Also at Mountaineer:
5th race: Royal Terms: Not much of a price but too fast for these.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Manchester United vs. Marseille: Champs League odds and picks

Second legs finish up this week in the Round of 16 with Manchester United favored over Olympique Marseille and Bayern Munich squaring off against Inter Milan. Like last week, remember that bets are graded on regulation time only.

MANCHESTER UNITED (-1, -115) vs. OLYMPIQUE MARSEILLE (2.5 goals under -130)

Background: Man U beat Arsenal 2-0 in the Cup on Saturday. Olympique Marseille beat Rennes 2-0 away on Friday. The first leg was a scoreless draw in Marseille.

Marseille is the bet here but only if you can take a full goal. What's the best way to get a full goal—or more? Wait.

Wait as long as you can before getting down, as more often than not the public lumps on United as kickoff approaches. If you think I'm crazy, and you want to bet United, at least do yourself the service of getting on the favorite early.

OK, so that's the strategy out of the way, but why Marseille? Well, the team's a little healthier than they were in the first leg. Andre-Pierre Gignac and Mathieu Valbuena are back, but Brandao has been suspended over rape allegations. Marseille is also in form with only one loss in all competitions over the last 10 games. Last, in a spot where the players could have laid down Friday at second-place Rennes, Marseille did the business on the road.

Despite the win over Arsenal, United's form has been very uneven lately, including losses at Chelsea and Liverpool. Manager Sir Alex Ferguson imposed a media blackout after the Liverpool game and a charge of improper conduct by the FA for comments after the Chelsea loss. Man U supporters will take up the slack as the club feels like it's been jobbed two years running at Chelsea, by the same ref no less.

United thought they lost Nani for at least a month to a Jamie Carragher horror tackle in the Liverpool game. Nani did train Monday as did Michael Carrick (calf). Rio Ferdinand remains out until the end of March. Park Ji-Sung and Michael Owen trained separately and will not feature here.

Are United rightfully favored? Sure, but Marseille already canceled them out once and shouldn't lose by more than a goal. Expect another tight game with little space, and watch Man U’s frustration build. Do hang on and see if you can take +1.5 at -145 or better.

The juice on the under is a shade too much. If anybody does score early, it's balls-to-the-wall for the opposition, and the game could fly over.

Pick: Manchester United 0, Olympique Marseille 0. Again.

BAYERN MUNICH (-0.5, -120) vs. INTER MILAN (2.5 goals flat)

Background: Bayern cooked Hamburger 6-0 on Saturday, while Inter drew 1-1 away to Brescia on Friday. Bayern won the first leg 1-0 in Milan.

We were wrong on the over in the first leg and back for more of the same here. Did you see that match? It should have been 3-3 at half as each team wasted chance after chance. Frustrating stuff, but here's a chance to get our money back.

I also don't mind Inter plus the half-goal, but it's a much weaker play than the total only because we think the game is going over. A draw does nothing for Inter here under any circumstances. So it's tough to put ourselves in a spot where it's 2-2, the over's in the bag, Inter sends everyone but the bus driver forward and Bayern seals a win on a counterattack.

Bayern's league form is disappointing and manager Luis van Gaal will be leaving at season's end, earlier than scheduled. It's a distraction, but there are no new injuries.

Lucio is a doubt in the heart of Inter's defense with what's officially being called a “buttock strain.”

Pick: Bayern 1, Inter 2. It's going over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

What bettors need to know: Clemson vs. UAB

Clemson Tigers vs. UAB Blazers (-4.5, 121)

THE STORY: Clemson and Alabama-Birmingham--two of the final four at-large teams included in the field—collide Tuesday in the newly expanded first round of the NCAA tournament. It’s a brutal turnaround, travel-wise, for the winning squad. They play the late game at Dayton on Tuesday then play an early-afternoon contest on Thursday in Tampa.

TV: 9:10 p.m. EST, truTV. POINTSPREAD: Clemson -4.5.

ABOUT UAB (22-8): The regular-season champion in Conference USA, UAB overcame an overtime loss to East Carolina in the C-USA tournament to earn a controversial at-large berth. It’s the first NCAA tournament trip for UAB during the five-year tenure of coach Mike Davis. UAB reached the tournament on the strength of a stingy defense that has allowed just 62.3 points per game. Senior Jamarr Sanders led C-USA in scoring at 17.7 points per game, but he’s tallied just 85 points in his last six games since dropping a career-high 37 on Feb. 12 against Rice.

ABOUT CLEMSON (21-11): First-year coach Brad Brownell has led Clemson to its fourth straight NCAA tournament appearance. That’s the most consecutive NCAA trips in Clemson history. Not bad for a Tigers team picked seventh in the ACC in preseason. Clemson finished strong, winning three of its final four games to close the regular season before falling short in overtime against North Carolina in the semifinals of the ACC tournament. Leading scorer Demontez Stitt came up big in the ACC tourney, scoring 45 total points in two contests. The Tigers are the best defensive team in the ACC, allowing a league-low 60.9 points per game.

UP NEXT: The winner plays fifth-seeded West Virginia on Thursday at 12:15 p.m.

TRENDS: Under is 7-1 in UAB's last eight non-conference games.
Under is 9-3-1 in Clemson's last 13 games overall.
Clemson is 3-0-1 against the spread in its last four games.

PREDICTION: Clemson 63, UAB 56 – Clemson’s tough defense and superior schedule gives the Tigers the edge. Look for Clemson to snap its five-game losing streak in the NCAA tournament.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

What bettors need to know: UNC-Asheville vs. Arkansas-Little Rock

UNC-Asheville vs. Arkansas-Little Rock (-4, 129.5)

THE STORY: Cinderellas square off in Dayton, Ohio on Tuesday night when North Carolina-Asheville plays Arkansas-Little Rock in a battle of No. 16 seeds. The Bulldogs are making their second NCAA tournament appearance, the other coming in 2003, while the Trojans haven’t been to the tourney since 1990. Both made surprising runs to win their conference tournaments. UNC-Asheville knocked off Coastal Carolina 60-47 in the Big South final, holding the top seed to 34 percent shooting. UALR edged North Texas 64-63 in the Sun Belt final on Solomon Bozeman’s 3-pointer with 1.5 seconds left.

TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, truTV. POINTSPREAD: UNC-Asheville -4

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA-ASHEVILLE (19-13): The Bulldogs have won six straight, including two victories over a Coastal Carolina squad that at one point had a nation-best 22-game win streak. UNC-Asheville owns a win over Auburn and hung with North Carolina in Chapel Hill; the Bulldogs trailed by six with five minutes left before falling 80-69. Averaging 74.2 points (47th nationally), UNC-Asheville runs an up-tempo attack keyed by junior guards Matt Dickey (15.3 points, 3.3 assists), J.P. Primm (14.4 points, 4.6 assists) and Chris Stephenson (14 points, 8 rebounds in the Big South final). The Bulldogs are relying even more heavily on their backcourt now that center D.J. Cunningham is out for the season with a foot injury. One of the Bulldogs’ bugaboos is ball security. They average 15 turnovers, which ranks 272nd nationally.

ABOUT ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (19-16): The Trojans ended the regular season with three straight losses, then won four games in four days for their first Sun Belt title. Bozeman, the conference Player of the Year, poured in 88 points in the tourney, half of them at the foul line. The 6-foot senior averages 16.5 points and 2.7 assists, and shoots 46 percent from beyond the arc. He’s a big reason why UALR ranks 14th nationally in 3-point shooting (39.8 percent). UALR prefers a more deliberate style and commits just 11.8 turnovers per game (38th nationally). But the Trojans, who like UNC-Asheville lack a big post presence, have a rebounding margin of -1.5. That's worse than UNC-Asheville's -0.4.

UP NEXT: Winner plays No. 1 seed Pittsburgh on Thursday in Washington, D.C.

TRENDS: UNC-Asheville has covered the spread in each of its last three games.
Arkansas-Little Rock has covered the number in four straight.
Arkansas-Little Rock has played under in seven of its last 10 games.

PREDICTION: North Carolina-Asheville 72, Arkansas-Little Rock 65 – Bozeman will be the best player on the court, but look for the Bulldogs to assert their tempo and run past the Trojans.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pick 'n' roll: Tuesday's best basketball bets

Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers (1, 189.5)

This is the third meeting of the season between the two teams after the Mavericks took the first couple of contests by nine points combined, so it’s no surprise to see a tight spread here.

The Blazers are coming off a road trip that saw them drop the Heat and Magic before losing at Charlotte and Atlanta.

"The road trip was not as good as we wanted, but we will take two wins over nothing any day, especially against high-caliber teams such as Miami and Orlando," guard Wes Matthews told the Blazers' official website. "Those wins give us confidence knowing we can play with everybody."

Especially when LaMarcus Aldridge is on his game. The Dallas native is averaging 31.5 points and 10 rebounds against the Mavericks this season.

The Mavs are getting solid numbers from Dirk Nowitzki and Shawn Marion on most nights, but the club has covered just one of the last six pointspreads it has seen.

Pick: Trail Blazers

Clemson Tigers at UAB Blazers (4.5, 120)

Whether or not you like this new First Four format the NCAA Tournament is adopting this year, you have to admit this is a very interesting matchup. The Tigers and Blazers square off for the right to battle No. 5 seed West Virginia.

Both teams have holes, but the Tigers come into this one on a roll, going 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four and pushing the North Carolina Tar Heels to overtime before losing in the ACC Tournament.

Demontez Stitt went off for 25 points against the Heels and is a major threat, leading the team in points (14.7 per game) and assists (3.4). Meanwhile, the Blazers have a bunch of guys that can shoot the lights out, but many are wondering how they made the big dance.

Considering the competition Clemson has been up against all year in the ACC, we’ll eat the chalk in this matchup.

Pick: Tigers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tuesday's betting tips: Clemson favored over UAB

Lines to watch

Arkansas-Little Rock at N.C. Asheville – UNC Asheville opened as a 2.5-point favorite but now sits around -4 for Tuesday’s game. The total has also dropped from 134.5 to 128.

Who’s hot

NBA: The under is 21-6 in Milwaukee’s last 27 games.

NBA: New York is 20-7-1 against the spread in its last 28 road games.

NHL: Washington is riding an eight-game winning streak and has just one loss in its last 11 games.

NHL: The Rangers have won five of their last six meetings with the New York Islanders.

NCAAB: The under is 9-3-1 in Clemson’s last 13 games.

Who’s not

NBA: Washington has just one outright win in its last 11 games and has covered the number only once over the six contests.

NBA: Dallas is riding a 1-5 run against the spread.

NHL: Columbus has just one win in its last seven games.

Key stat

20 – The UAB Blazers have been a goldmine for their supporters this season, posting a 17-11-1 record against the spread, which ranks 20th in the nation. However, after the Blazers finished the regular season winning and covering their last three games, they lost 75-70 in overtime to East Carolina as a 7-point favorite in the conference tournament.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Dustin Byfuglien, Atlanta Thrashers: The Thrashers could be without arguably their best defenseman Tuesday when they visit the streaking New Jersey Devils on Tuesday as a +170 underdog. Byfuglien was forced to leave Monday’s practice early with some sort of lower body injury and is considered questionable. He sits third in team scoring with 19 goals and 50 points this season.

Game of the day

Clemson vs. UAB (4.5, 121)

Notable quotable

“They seem to be similar to us, in that they’re defensive minded. They shoot a lot of 3’s and make a lot of 3’s, so that will certainly be a point of emphasis.” – Clemson coach Brad Brownell on his team’s matchup with the UAB Blazers on Tuesday. Clemson is currently set as a 4.5-point favorite and the winner of this game will face off against No. 5 seed West Virginia.

Notes and tips

D.J. Cunningham, UNC Asheville’s 6-foot-10 center, is expected to play Tuesday against Arkansas-Little Rock after sitting out most the Big South Conference Tournament with a sprained ankle. Cunningham will be a big boost for the club, bringing nine points and 7.5 rebounds per game to the table. Don’t overlook the layoff factor with Cunningham and his teammates though. UNC Asheville hasn’t played a game in more than a week after winning its conference tourney.

The Philadelphia Flyers will be without a major part of their team now that defenseman Chris Pronger will be out at least three weeks with a broken hand. Pronger, who averages more than 22 minutes of ice time per game, is scheduled to undergo surgery on Tuesday as the Flyers get ready for a date with the Florida Panthers. Philadelphia is set as a -165 favorite on the road.

The Atlanta Hawks are hoping to have big man Al Horford back in the lineup Tuesday, but it’s not written in stone just yet. Horford, who’s averaging almost 16 points and 10 rebounds per game, missed Saturday’s win over Portland and says he’s ready to go, but coach Larry Drew isn’t completely convinced just yet. Atlanta is up against Milwaukee Tuesday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ice picks: Tuesday's best NHL bets

Phoenix Coyotes at Calgary Flames (-140, 5.5)

The Coyotes are a tough team to get a read on this year. They followed up an eight-game winning streak by promptly dropping five straight and are now 3-0-1 against some of the hottest teams the West has to offer.

Ilya Bryzgalov was sensational again in a 5-2 win over the Ducks on Sunday, stopping 36 shots while breakout forward Lauri Korpikoski scored twice to pull into a share of the team goal scoring lead. The thing is, he only has 17 goals on the year, so the Coyotes’ offense is still spotty at best.

Luckily, Bryzgalov is on another hot streak because the club was just three points clear of the ninth spot in the West heading into Monday’s action.

"You're going to drive yourself crazy if you look at those standings that hard every day," Coyotes coach Dave Tippett said. "We have the focus right now that every game is going to be the game that puts you in the playoffs, and we have to play every one just like it's a playoff game."

Phoenix has won its last three meetings with the Flames, including a 3-0 victory last week.

Pick: Coyotes

Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators (+125, 5)

Sidney Crosby skated in full gear for the first time since Jan. 5 on Monday and while there still isn’t any timetable as to when he might return to the lineup, the Penguins are getting along just fine without the captain and Evgeni Malkin.

Pittsburgh has won three of its last four games and was just three points back of first-place Philadelphia in the Atlantic Division heading into Monday night’s action. Jordan Staal has had a big hand in keeping the Penguins going without their top two centers.

Staal had a terrible game in Saturday’s loss to Montreal but rebounded with an excellent effort in Sunday’s 5-1 win over Edmonton, scoring and setting up a goal to boost his point total to 20 points in the 31 games he has played.

Ottawa isn’t an easy two points these days, but the Pens will show up with their top effort here.

Pick: Penguins

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dunkel NCAA

TUESDAY, MARCH 15
Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST (3/14)
Game 539-540: NC-Asheville vs. AR-Little Rock (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Asheville 56.480; AR-Little Rock 53.819
Dunkel Line: NC-Asheville by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: NC-Asheville by 4
Dunkel Pick: AR-Little Rock (+4)

Game 541-542: UAB vs. Clemson (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 62.663; Clemson 70.039
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Clemson by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-4 1/2)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

RAS

623 Alabama State +4.5
540 Arkansas-Little Rock +4
724 Vanderbilt -1.5
850 Arizona -5.5
840 Xavier -1.5
729 Gonzaga +2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PureGamble Sports

CBB
NC Ashville -3.5
UAB +4.5
Vermont Under 129
Davidson Over 141

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NCAA CBB

Season
Straight Up: 3778-1299 (.744)
ATS: 1751-1773 (.497)
ATS Vary Units: 4873-4979 (.495)
Over/Under: 1725-1752 (.496)
Over/Under Vary Units: 2239-2422 (.480)

NCAA Tournament
1st Round at University of Dayton Arena, Dayton, OH
Clemson 64, Uab 59
UNC Asheville 70, Ualr 67
National Invitation Tournament
1st Round at campus sites
ALABAMA 72, Coastal Carolina 58
NEW MEXICO 71, Utep 65
MISSOURI STATE 65, Murray State 56
COLORADO STATE 67, Fairfield 58
SAINT MARY'S 77, Kent State 69
Boston College 76, McNEESE STATE 69
OKLAHOMA STATE 71, Harvard 64
COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON 70, Dayton 66
CLEVELAND STATE 69, Vermont 59
College Basketball Invitational
1st Round at campus sites
James Madison 72, DAVIDSON 71
CREIGHTON 72, San Jose State 64
BOISE STATE 77, Austin Peay 64
Hofstra vs. EVANSVILLE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
CollegeInsider.Com Postseason Tournament
1st Round at campus sites
MARSHALL 82, Ohio 71
EAST TENNESSEE STATE 66, Furman 61
EAST CAROLINA 73, Jacksonville 60
NORTHERN IOWA 69, Rider 65
AIR FORCE 73, North Dakota 55
SANTA CLARA 72, Northern Arizona 69
HAWAI'I 72, Portland 69

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NBA

Season
Straight Up: 646-291 (.689)
ATS: 485-489 (.498)
ATS Vary Units: 1162-1207 (.491)
Over/Under: 500-490 (.505)
Over/Under Vary Units: 605-613 (.497)

ATLANTA 90, Milwaukee 84
New York vs. INDIANA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
CHICAGO 105, Washington 83
Dallas vs. PORTLAND: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NHL

Season: 307-246 (.555)

NEW JERSEY 3, Atlanta 2
N.Y. RANGERS 3, N.Y. Islanders 2
Boston vs. COLUMBUS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
MONTREAL 3, Washington 2
BUFFALO 3, Carolina 2
Pittsburgh 3, OTTAWA 2
Philadelphia 3, FLORIDA 2
Los Angeles vs. NASHVILLE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
San Jose vs. DALLAS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Phoenix vs. CALGARY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Bonus Play Tuesday

SF Giants "pick"

 

[jdsabre]

Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Clemson -4 over UAB

 

[jdsabre]

Basketball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Clemson -4 over UAB

 

[jdsabre]

Hockey Crusher
Play of the Day:

Calgary -140 over Phoenix

 

[jdsabre]

Soccer Crusher
Play of the Day:

CreweAlexandra + SouthendUnited OVER 2.5
This match is happening in England

 

[jdsabre]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Harvard
New Mexico
Mavericks